H2H: Brest vs. Paris SG – Prediction (Ligue 1

Preview and Teams Comparison.

Brest are winless in their last 16 games against Paris in Ligue 1 (D7 L9), their last win against PSG in the top-flight was in January 1985 (3-1).

Brest face their biggest challenge yet, but do so on a run of three wins in four league outings, all of which saw them contain their goals inside one specific half. Expected to lose here, they have lost the first half to-nil in all of their league defeats this term. Yoann Court’s double vs Lyon (Sep 25) secured Brest’s first home point of the campaign vs a top-three finisher from 2018/19. The hosts are still unbeaten at home in the league this term (W3, D3). All three wins came with a clean sheet, and across the three stalemates, both Brest and their opponents averaged exactly one goal apiece.

Brest’s only two home league equalisers this term have both come within the 20 minutes following the opponents’ preceding match goal. Shock incoming? Both of PSG’s L1 away losses this term (2-1) have been level at the break (1-1) with PSG scoring first each time. PSG’s record as an away favourite in L1 since the start of 2018/19 is impressive: W16, D2, L7.

Though beaten in their last away game, PSG are favoured to win, and their last three Ligue 1 (L1) away victories have seen them win the second half by a one-goal margin. In a further twist, PSG’s last three L1 away wins to yield a margin of victory greater than 1.5 goals each saw them win the first half precisely by a 2-0 scoreline. Opening scorer (and decisive winner) in PSG’s last three competitive wins to-nil, Mauro Icardi has seen four of his last five goals arrive within the opening 30 minutes of matches. Amongst those games, ‘2-0’ was the final result in PSG’s last league trip to a promoted side. In turn, the Parisians’ last three L1 away games vs promoted opposition have yielded a final score separating the sides by a margin of exactly two goals (W2, L1).